Population Structure Affects Outcomes of Gene Drive Interventions Against Vector-Borne Diseases
Additional Funding Sources
This project is supported by a 2019-2020 STEM Undergraduate Research Grant from the Higher Education Research Council.
Abstract
Proponents of so-called "gene drives" promise freedom from some of the most pressing public health and ecological challenges of the day, arguing that genetic engineering and similar technologies could be used to eliminate vector-borne diseases like malaria. However, genetic interventions against disease will likely prove imperfect––leaving pockets in which parasite persistence and evolution are possible. To understand the effect of such imperfections on genetic interventions against disease and the role of space in interventions more generally, we build and analyze metapopulation models of vectored disease characterized by distinct functional forms of transmission. We find that movement of humans between localities, as well as differences in mosquito ecology, shape the nature of infection globally. Further, we hypothesize that discrete spatial structure has profound evolutionary implications, allowing for a parasite to accumulate successive mutations and expand its initial range. Altogether, our results illustrate the nuanced reality of interventions, both genetic and not, against vector-borne disease: population structure, mosquito biology, and evolution together determine where eradication is possible, and where it isn't.
Population Structure Affects Outcomes of Gene Drive Interventions Against Vector-Borne Diseases
Proponents of so-called "gene drives" promise freedom from some of the most pressing public health and ecological challenges of the day, arguing that genetic engineering and similar technologies could be used to eliminate vector-borne diseases like malaria. However, genetic interventions against disease will likely prove imperfect––leaving pockets in which parasite persistence and evolution are possible. To understand the effect of such imperfections on genetic interventions against disease and the role of space in interventions more generally, we build and analyze metapopulation models of vectored disease characterized by distinct functional forms of transmission. We find that movement of humans between localities, as well as differences in mosquito ecology, shape the nature of infection globally. Further, we hypothesize that discrete spatial structure has profound evolutionary implications, allowing for a parasite to accumulate successive mutations and expand its initial range. Altogether, our results illustrate the nuanced reality of interventions, both genetic and not, against vector-borne disease: population structure, mosquito biology, and evolution together determine where eradication is possible, and where it isn't.