Summary & Purpose
The dataset was analyzed to forecast the first round result for left-wing presidential candidates campaigning in the 2022 French presidential election. The forecast was made six months in advance of the election, using presidential approval data as the independent variable.
Date of Publication or Submission
8-1-2023
DOI
https://doi.org/10.18122/polsci_data.1.boisestate
Funding Citation
No funding required
Data Source Credits
I added more recent French presidential election data to an original dataset published in this article: Nadeau, Richard, Michael S. Lewis-Beck, and Éric Bélanger. 2012. "Proxy models for election forecasting: The 2012 French test." French Politics 10(1):1-10. The dataset appears on page 6 of the article. Drs. Nadeau, Lewis-Beck, and Bélanger have kindly agreed to have their original data housed in this format, combined with my additions to the dataset.
Single Dataset or Series?
Single Dataset
Data Format
*.csv
File Size
2.55 kb
Data Attributes
Data Columns: Year = French presidential election year, Approval = approval of the French president in mid-November of the year prior to the election as measured by French polling firms and adjusted as follows: 100 - Approval value for right-wing presidents and simply the Approval value for left-wing presidents, VoteLeft = first-round vote for all left-wing French presidential election candidates, Election = consecutive numerical count for elections such as 1965 = 1, 1969 = 2, 1974 = 3 ... 2022 = 11.
Time Period
1965-2022
Update Frequency
Other
Privacy and Confidentiality Statement
Boise State is explicitly compliant with federal and state laws surrounding data privacy including the protection of personal financial information through the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act, personal medical information through HIPAA, HITECH and other regulations. All human subject data (e.g., surveys) has been collected and managed only by personnel with adequate human subject protection certification.
Use Restrictions
Boise State is explicitly compliant with federal and state laws surrounding data privacy including the protection of personal financial information through the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act, personal medical information through HIPAA, HITECH and other regulations. All human subject data (e.g., surveys) has been collected and managed only by personnel with adequate human subject protection certification.
Disclaimer of Warranty
BOISE STATE UNIVERSITY MAKES NO REPRESENTATIONS ABOUT THE SUITABILITY OF THE INFORMATION CONTAINED IN OR PROVIDED AS PART OF THE SYSTEM FOR ANY PURPOSE. ALL SUCH INFORMATION IS PROVIDED "AS IS" WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND. BOISE STATE UNIVERSITY HEREBY DISCLAIMS ALL WARRANTIES AND CONDITIONS WITH REGARD TO THIS INFORMATION, INCLUDING ALL WARRANTIES AND CONDITIONS OF MERCHANTABILITY, WHETHER EXPRESS, IMPLIED OR STATUTORY, FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE, TITLE AND NON-INFRINGEMENT.
IN NO EVENT SHALL BOISE STATE UNIVERSITY BE LIABLE FOR ANY SPECIAL, INDIRECT OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES OR ANY DAMAGES WHATSOEVER RESULTING FROM LOSS OF USE, DATA OR PROFITS, WHETHER IN AN ACTION OF CONTRACT, NEGLIGENCE OR OTHER TORTIOUS ACTION, ARISING OUT OF OR IN CONNECTION WITH THE USE OR PERFORMANCE OF INFORMATION AVAILABLE FROM THE SYSTEM.
THE INFORMATION PROVIDED BY THE SYSTEM COULD INCLUDE TECHNICAL INACCURACIES OR TYPOGRAPHICAL ERRORS. CHANGES ARE PERIODICALLY ADDED TO THE INFORMATION HEREIN. COMPANY AND/OR ITS RESPECTIVE SUPPLIERS MAY MAKE IMPROVEMENTS AND/OR CHANGES IN THE PRODUCT(S) AND/OR THE PROGRAM(S) DESCRIBED HEREIN AT ANY TIME, WITH OR WITHOUT NOTICE TO YOU.
BOISE STATE UNIVERSITY DOES NOT MAKE ANY ASSURANCES WITH REGARD TO THE ACCURACY OF THE RESULTS OR OUTPUT THAT DERIVES FROM USE OF THE SYSTEM.
Recommended Citation
Burkhart, Ross E., "Dataset for "A Fractured Electorate?: French Presidential Election Forecasting for 2022"" (2023). Political Science Data. 1.
https://scholarworks.boisestate.edu/polsci_data/1