2026 Undergraduate Research Showcase

Aisles of Avoided Damage

Document Type

Student Presentation

Presentation Date

4-24-2026

Faculty Sponsor

Dr. Kelly Chen

Abstract

Imagine a United States where the grocery aisle acts as a catalyst for a sweeping agricultural revolution. This paper explores a future where sustainable shopping is no longer a niche choice but a national standard, made possible by subsidies that eliminate the price barriers currently facing consumers.

Using a segmented Bass diffusion model, my research tracks how innovation and social contagion ripple across rural and urban landscapes. The results suggest a rapid cultural shift: with the right incentives, a majority of American households could adopt sustainable shopping practices in less than 20 years. As this tide of demand rises, the food supply chain is forced to transform. Agricultural producers—ranging from "Obstructionists" to "Stewards"—climb a sustainability hierarchy, upgrading their practices as the economic pressure of a green market becomes undeniable.

Drawing on the Poore and Nemecek global life-cycle database, my model translates these behavioral shifts into environmental dividends. The findings provide a powerful financial mandate for policy intervention: the transition could yield $834 billion in savings from stress-weighted water use alone, alongside hundreds of billions in avoided damages from land use and greenhouse gas emissions. Ultimately, this paper argues that subsidizing the sustainable consumer is the most effective lever for securing a multi-trillion-dollar investment in the nation’s ecological and financial future.

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