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This analysis is designed to study the question of a manager’s contribution to the organization, particularly in terms of uncertainty related to managerial succession. The theory of managerial succession, which is the replacement of one public manager with another, suggests a negative relationship between change and organizational performance. Organizations’ decision to change managers more often exacerbates the negative effect on performance. The hypotheses are tested using baseball managers as proxies for public managers, as they perform similar duties, have similar goals, and operate under similar constraints. The results suggest that managerial succession has a negative effect on organizational performance. Frequent succession events also have a negative effect on performance, although the relationship is non-linear in nature.

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This is an author-produced, peer-reviewed version of this article. © 2009, Elsevier. Licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License ( The final, definitive version of this document can be found online at The Social Science Journal, doi: 10.1016/j.soscij.2008.11.001