This paper forecasts the first round of the French presidential election five months in advance. It uses a key industry-standard structural variable in its forecasting model, approval of the French president. Its parsimony allows for an early forecast, but its potential for error is higher. In the end, the forecast was somewhat off the mark, though it accurately showed the strength of a somewhat attenuated left. However, the structure of French political parties has changed dramatically over the past several years, leaving some doubt as to the reliability of this forecasting technique.
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Burkhart, Ross E.. (2023). "A Fractured Electorate?: French Presidental Election Forecasting for 2022". Journal of Political Science and Public Opinion, 1(1), 101.