Document Type

Conference Proceeding

Publication Date



Rarely do two clicks of a computer mouse incite widespread panic and create international news. The incorrect assumption of a Hawaiian Emergency Management Agency warning officer on January 13, 2018, led that officer to select an actual ballistic missile alert rather than a test alert option from the agency’s computer interface dropdown menu. Further, presented with the option to confirm his selection, said officer validated his choice. His actions would set in motion a chain of events impacted drastically by heightened tension regarding U.S. relations with North Korea. This paper applies the Standardized Plant Analysis Risk-Human Reliability Analysis (SPAR-H) method to the Hawaii ballistic missile alert (BMA) event, aligning the individual components of the event, obtained from the Hawaii Department of Defense report, with the respective performance shaping factors detailed within the SPAR-H method framework.

Copyright Statement

This document was originally published in PSAM 2018: Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management by International Association for Probablistic Safety Assessment and Management (IAPSAM). Copyright restrictions may apply.