Summary & Purpose

There is widespread evidence that species distributions are shifting in response to climate change. Warming temperatures and climate niche constraints are hypothesized drivers of northward shifts in temperate migratory bird breeding distributions, but heterogeneity in the direction of distribution shifts suggests that the climate niche hypothesis does not explain all changes in distributions. We propose that changes in the costs and benefits of migration are related to dampened seasonal differences between breeding and winter areas, sensitivity to supplemental cues, a mismatch-driven fitness gradient, or a combination of these drivers may explain southward distribution shifts. We examined latitudinal shifts in breeding distribution centroids for 73 species of migratory birds from 1994 - 2017 across eastern, central, and western regions of North America using Breeding Bird Survey data and tested if life history characteristics and population status explain shift patterns. We found that 44% of regional centroid shifts were southward, 55% were northward, and several species shifted in different directions in different regions. Migratory strategy and protandry predicted breeding distribution centroid shifts, although they tended to be more predictive of northward shifts than southward shifts. However, there was evidence that supplemental cues explained some southward shifts because herbivorous birds tended to shift southward compared to insectivores, or raptors that shifted northward. Shifts in centroids were not explained by trends in abundance, suggesting that centroid shifts were not attributable to population declines or increases at distribution margins. Our results show the prevalence of heterogeneous breeding distribution shifts, including often overlooked southward shifts, and suggest that more work is needed to develop alternative hypotheses that would explain southward shifts in distributions.

Author Identifier

Hanna M. McCaslin, ORCID: 0000-0002-5366-2310; Julie A. Heath, ORCID: 0000-0002-9606-1689

Date of Publication or Submission

11-21-2019

DOI

10.18122/bio_data/4/boisestate

Funding Citation

Boise State University Department of Biological Sciences and Raptor Research Center

Data Source Credits

Pardieck, K.L., D.J. Ziolkowski Jr., M. Lutmerding, V. Aponte and M-A.R. Hudson. 2018. North American Breeding Bird Survey Dataset 1966 - 2017, version 2017.0. U.S. Geological Survey, Patuxent Wildlife Research Center. https://doi.org/10.5066/P9HE8XYJ. Accessed 14 May 2018.

Single Dataset or Series?

Single Dataset

Data Format

csv, txt

Data Attributes

metadata_distributions.txt

Time Period

1973-2017

Privacy and Confidentiality Statement

Boise State is explicitly compliant with federal and state laws surrounding data privacy including the protection of personal financial information through the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act, personal medical information through HIPAA, HITECH and other regulations. All human subject data (e.g., surveys) has been collected and managed only by personnel with adequate human subject protection certification.

Use Restrictions

Users are free to share, copy, distribute and use the dataset; to create or produce works from the dataset; to adapt, modify, transform and build upon the dataset as long as the user attributes any public use of the dataset, or works produced from the dataset, referencing the author(s) and DOI link. For any use or redistribution of the dataset, or works produced from it, the user must make clear to others the license of the dataset and keep intact any notices on the original dataset.

Disclaimer of Warranty

BOISE STATE UNIVERSITY MAKES NO REPRESENTATIONS ABOUT THE SUITABILITY OF THE INFORMATION CONTAINED IN OR PROVIDED AS PART OF THE SYSTEM FOR ANY PURPOSE. ALL SUCH INFORMATION IS PROVIDED "AS IS" WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND. BOISE STATE UNIVERSITY HEREBY DISCLAIMS ALL WARRANTIES AND CONDITIONS WITH REGARD TO THIS INFORMATION, INCLUDING ALL WARRANTIES AND CONDITIONS OF MERCHANTABILITY, WHETHER EXPRESS, IMPLIED OR STATUTORY, FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE, TITLE AND NON-INFRINGEMENT.

IN NO EVENT SHALL BOISE STATE UNIVERSITY BE LIABLE FOR ANY SPECIAL, INDIRECT OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES OR ANY DAMAGES WHATSOEVER RESULTING FROM LOSS OF USE, DATA OR PROFITS, WHETHER IN AN ACTION OF CONTRACT, NEGLIGENCE OR OTHER TORTIOUS ACTION, ARISING OUT OF OR IN CONNECTION WITH THE USE OR PERFORMANCE OF INFORMATION AVAILABLE FROM THE SYSTEM.

THE INFORMATION PROVIDED BY THE SYSTEM COULD INCLUDE TECHNICAL INACCURACIES OR TYPOGRAPHICAL ERRORS. CHANGES ARE PERIODICALLY ADDED TO THE INFORMATION HEREIN. COMPANY AND/OR ITS RESPECTIVE SUPPLIERS MAY MAKE IMPROVEMENTS AND/OR CHANGES IN THE PRODUCT(S) AND/OR THE PROGRAM(S) DESCRIBED HEREIN AT ANY TIME, WITH OR WITHOUT NOTICE TO YOU.

BOISE STATE UNIVERSITY DOES NOT MAKE ANY ASSURANCES WITH REGARD TO THE ACCURACY OF THE RESULTS OR OUTPUT THAT DERIVES FROM USE OF THE SYSTEM.

Available for download on Friday, November 20, 2020

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