Does the Experience of Uganda Fit Modern Economic Growth Model Predictions?
This project evaluates Uganda’s economic growth prospects using currently popular Solow based growth models to produce two outcomes. First, a determination of whether the literature on economic growth fits the country’s case is determined by comparing predictions of the models against historical growth data for Uganda. Second, reasons why the country’s experience differs from model predictions will be explored through a quantitative and qualitative analysis of discrepancies. The method of analysis will be application of existing national level census and survey data in Solow based models across historical periods. The fit of the model is demonstrated by comparing its predictions, beginning at initial dates, to actual growth over those periods. The expected result of these comparisons is a weak, positive correlation between the country’s data and growth model predictions. Differences between predictions and real growth data indicate relevant characteristics important to economic growth in Uganda. Because of the sudden, rapid shift toward liberalization in the 1980’s, combined with Uganda’s relative lack of natural resource limitations, it is believed such an analysis will be particularly insightful regarding growth policies. It is hoped that this research will provide a more accurate economic growth prediction for the specific case of Uganda as well as other nations sharing the identified relevant national characteristics.
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