Document Type

Student Presentation

Presentation Date


Faculty Sponsor

Jaechoul Lee


The purpose of this paper is to examine extreme precipitation trends in the United States. The National Climate Assessment estimated that average precipitation in the United States has increased in the last 100 years, with variation occurring regionally. Some regions have experienced larger increases in average precipitation, while others have experienced decreases. However, this aggregate increase in average precipitation does not necessarily indicate an analogous trend in extreme precipitation. Statistically, average and extreme values are nearly independent. In this paper, a changepoint technique and extreme value statistical models will be used for estimation of trend and its uncertainty. A changepoint occurs when a station makes a change in location, equipment, etc., and can cause data to appear as if there has been a sudden, inexplicable shift in extreme precipitation. These shifts are attributed to changepoints. However, good records of when and where these changepoints occur are not always kept. Consequently, this paper will use changepoint estimation techniques in order to produce more accurate trend estimation for extreme precipitation.



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